PMP studies notes contain all the key points that helps of to understand the knowledge area, process and ITTO's.

Friday, May 29, 2009

PMP - Lesson Learned

By the Grace of ALLAH and prays of my mother I cleared my PMP exam on 26th of May 2009. I start my preparation in Feb 2009, it was very difficult for us to manage our studies with job because we were doing group studies and we had a Project plan which we are following and every week we update the schedule baselines because we can't meet them. Finally we decide to take a one week vacations from offices and get to gather on a one place to complete our studies and that last one week is the memorable days of live. We only slept 3 or 4 hours in a day and night to meet the schedule.

Preparation Material:
1) Read Head First.
2) Read Rita
3) Gave PM FasTrack after studding each knowledge area from RITA for that knowledge area. It was really use full and I recommend you guys to try it and I saw few questions of FasTrack in exam and FasTrack really helps me to remember and understand thing.
4) Read PMBOK for references only.
5) Gave head first Exam, score 73%.
6) Gave exam on PassPm.com and score 75% and on PMFinal.com take 79%.
7) But on Pmstudy.com I just score 62% just because I haven't read PMBOK properly.
8) And I change my exam date. But please I suggest you guy please please please don’t change your date specially when you are doing group studies.
9) Two days before exam I memorize & understand ITTO's and hear PMBOK line by line. You can use the Acrobat reader "Read out Load" feature to listen PMBOK. Understand & Memorize ITTO's it will really helps you in the exams.
10) After Reading I again appear in the PMStudy Exam and this time I score 78.5%.
11) Also read delegation. Almost 8 9 questions are appeared on this topic.
12) Last but not least, we found a study notes on internet and they are really useful [But we call them stupid notes :)]. All the key points are available in this PDF. I will send the link of these notes in my next email.

ON Exam Day

On exam day I waked up early in the morning. Read ITTO's and Study note.
Complete Exam in 3.5 hours but I only marked 4 questions and I also suggest you guys to avoid marked questions because there are 75% chance that you change the correct choice to wrong.
Exam was not too much difficult; few questions were lengthy.

I suggest you guys to read questions & choices carefully and figure out which process group you are and I bet you got the right answer in a minute. 4 hours are more than enough to complete 200 Question.

Also write all earned value formula's on paper before start of the examination.

After four hours when I press the end exam button and processing start to process my result and I was wait the screen of Congratulations but suddenly prometric survey is appeared on the screen. It was really painful to me to read and fill the survey form. And finally after some processing I saw the congratulation screen.

I special thanks to Faizan Dosani and Shahzad Sarang to help me in my studies motivate me.
If anybody need any help from me feel free to contact.

Bust of luck for your Exam.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

PMP - Chapter 13 – Professional Responsibilities

Routine Government Fee (Transfer Fee) – only government official can collect routine government fees (this is not a bribe)

Company Policies - It is the project manager’s professional responsibility to ensure that company policies are followed during the project.

Copyright laws – do not violate

Employee mistake - when a team member makes a mistakes, allow him to save face and to fix the problem. Try to workout an issue before escalating. Exception: if it is not considered a project related issue (e.g. harassment), it should be reported directly to the employee’s manager.

Do not make illegal payments, report thefts

Company and Customer’s Interest - professional responsibility requires the investigation of any instances where the legitimate interests of the customer may be compromised. If such compromise is found, action must be taken. Protect your company’s interests

Budget tampering - presenting anything besides your original estimate to allocate more to the budget is inaccurate and calls into question your competence and integrity as project manager (e.g. if a customer ask to estimate “pessimistically”, you should add as a lump sum contingency fund to handle project risks)

Rights - do not do business with a country where there is a clear violation of the fundamental rights (e.g. non-discriminating treatment).

Major Roles of Project Team in PR (Professional Responsibility)

  • The Project team has a professional responsibility to its stakeholders including customers, the performing organization and the public.  Especially the project team members who are PMI members and/or PMPs should adhere to the updated versions of the “Code of Ethics” and “Code of Professional Conduct”.
  • Specifically, PMI members should adhere to “Code of Ethics”
  • Specifically, Project Management Professionals (PMP) certification should adhere to a “Code of Professional Conduct”.

 

Code of Ethics (few to mention):-

  • Maintain high standards of integrity and professional conduct.
  • Accepts Responsibility for the actions.
  • Continuously seek to enhance the professional capabilities
  • Practice with fairness and honesty.
  • Encourage others in the profession to act in an ethical and professional manner

 

Code of Professional Conduct (few to mention):-

 

  • Adhere to legal requirements and ethical standards
  • Protect stakeholder
  • Share Lessons Learned and relative information within and outside your organization
  • Advance the profession of project management
  • Improve your competency as a project manager
  • Balance stakeholders interest on the project
  • Maintain and respect confidential information
  • Strive for fair solution
  • Ensure that a conflict of interest doesn’t compromise the customer’s legitimate interest
Act in an accurate truthful manner.


Notes: I am not the writter of this post, please thanks the anonymous writter

PMP - Chapter 12 – PROCUREMENT Management

 

Knowledge Areas

Major Processes

Primary Inputs

Tools & Techniques

Primary Outputs

 

 

 

 

 

PROCUREMENT

                 PPSSAC

 

 

 

Plan Purchases & Acquisitions

Determining what to procure and when   and how (make or buy)

1. Enterprise Environmental Factors

2. Organizational Process Assets

3. Project scope statement

4. WBS

5. WBS Dictionary

6. Project Management Plan

1. Make or buy analysis

2. Expert judgment

3. Contract types

1. Procurement mgmt plan
2. Contract Statement(s) of Work

3. Make or Buy Decisions

4. Requested Changes

Plan Contracting

Preparing the documents needed to do contracting. Document requirement and identify sellers

1. Procurement management plan

2. Contract Statement(s) of work

3. Make or Buy Decisions

4. Project Management Plan

1. Standard forms

2. Expert judgment

1. Procurement documents
2. Evaluation criteria

3. Contract Statement of work (updates)

Request Seller Responses

Obtaining quotations, bids, offers, or proposals   (answer questions)

1. Organizational Process Assets

2. Procurement Management Plan

3. Procurement Documents

1. Bidder conferences

2. Advertising

3. Develop qualified sellers list

1. Qualified sellers list

2. Procurement Document Package

3. Proposals

Select Sellers

Involves the receipt of bids or proposals and the application of evaluation criteria to select a seller. Also involves applying evaluation criteria.

1. Organizational Process Assets

2. Procurement Management Plan

3. Evaluation Criteria

4. Procurement Document Package

5. Proposals

6. Qualified Sellers List

7. Project Management Plan

1. Weighting system

2. Independent estimates

3. Screening system

4. Contract Negotiation

5. Seller Rating System

6. Expert Judgment

7. Proposal Evaluation Techniques

1. Selected Sellers

2. Contract

3. Contract Management Plan

4. Resource Availability

5. Procurement Management Plan (Updates)

6. Requested changes

Contract Administration

Ensuring that the seller’s performance meets contractual requirements

1. Contract

2. Contract Management Plan

3. Selected Sellers

4. Performance Reports

5. Approved change requests

6. Work Performance information

1. Contract change control system

2. Buyer conducted performance review

3. Inspections and audits

4. Performance reporting

5.Payment system

6. Claims administration

7. Records management system

8. Information technology

1. Contract Documentation

2. Requested Changes

3. Recommended Corrective actions

4. Organizational Process assets (Updates)

5. Project Management plan (updates)

   * Procurement Management Plan

   * Contract management plan

Contract Closeout

Product verification and administration closeout    (finish)

1. Procurement management Plan

2. Contract management plan

3. Contract documentation

4. Contract closure procedure

1. Procurement audits

2. Records Management System

1. Closed Contracts

2. Organizational process assets (Updates)

 

Procurement Processes Repetition - When the project obtains products and services (project scope) from outside the performing organization, the processes from procurement planning through contract closeout would be performed once for each product or service item.

 

Contract – Subjects covered include Responsibilities, authorities, law and terms, technical and management approaches, financing, schedule, payments and price. Contract negotiations conclude with a document that can be signed by both buyer and seller, that is contract. The final contract can be a revised offer by the seller or counter offer by the buyer.

 

PLAN PROCUREMENT (OP)

 

Procurement Management Plan – Describes how procurement will be managed till contract closure. It includes Type Of contract, who prepares independent estimates, standardized procurement documents, Constraints and assumptions, identifying seller list etc.

Contract SOW – Developed from Scope Statement, WBS and WBS Dictionary describes procurement item in sufficient detail to allow prospective sellers to determine if they are capable of providing it.

Type of Contract SOW:

  1. Performance: what final product should be able to accomplish, car with a speed of 240 KM per hr (T&M, CR; IT, R&D)
  2. functional: end purpose or result, car with 6 seats (T&M, IT, R&D)
  3. design: what work is to be done, built car as per the design (T&M, FP, construction)

Make or buy decisions: Costs - Direct costs are costs incurred for the exclusive benefit of the project (e.g., salaries of full-time project staff). Indirect costs, also called overhead costs, are costs allocated to the project by the performing organization as a cost of doing business (e.g., salaries of corporate executives).

 

PLAN CONTRACTING (OP)

 

Procurement Documents – Common names for different types of procurement documents include: Invitation for Bid (IFB), Request for Proposal (RFP), Request for Quotation (RFQ), tender notice, Invitation for Negotiation, and Contractor Initial Response. Procurement documents are rigorous enough to ensure consistent, comparable responses but flexible enough to allow seller suggestions for better ways to satisfy the requirements. Seller is allowed to propose alternative solution in a separate proposal.

It has 1. Information for sellers 2. Contract SOW 3. Proposed terms and conditions of the contract (Legal & Business)

Evaluation Criteria

 

Proposal - technical approach, Bid, Tender and quotation – price

 

REQUEST SELLER RESPONSE

 

Bidder Conferences (TT) – Also called, as Contactor Conferences, Vendor Conferences and Pre-Bid Conferences are meetings with prospective sellers prior to preparation of bid or proposal, ensures clear and common understanding of procurement needs.

Procurement Document Package (OP) – Buyer prepared formal request sent to each seller and is the basis upon which a seller prepares a bid for the requested products, service or result.

Procurement Documents

  1. Request For Proposal/Tender (RFP, RFT ) – Requests for Price and Detailed Proposal (CR)
  2. Invitation for Bid/Request for Bid (IFB, RFB) – One Price (FP)
  3. Request for Quotation – Price Quote per item (T&M)

 

Select Sellers – Tools & Techniques

  1. Weighting System – Numeric Weight to each criteria, rating sellers, selection based on total weight
  2. Independent Estimates – called “Should-Cost”, prepared by procuring organization.
  3. Screening System – Establish minimum performance requirement for one or more criteria and use 1 & 2 methods
  4. Contract Negotiation – Project Manager may not be the lead negotiator, PM team may be present during negotiations for providing any clarification of project’s technical and management requirements.
  5. Seller Rating Systems
  6. Expert Judgment
  7. Proposal Evaluations techniques – Use some Expert judgment and evaluation criteria to rate and score proposals.

 

Output

 

Contract Management Plan – Lists documentation, delivery and performance requirements that the buyer and seller must meet. The plan covers the contract administration activities throughout the life of the contract. Part of PMP.

Selected Seller

Contract

Resource Availability

 

Contract Administration – Ensures the seller meets the performance requirements of the contract. Because of legal considerations many organizations treat contract administration as a separate administrative function from the project organization. Contract administration includes application of the appropriate project management processes to the contractual relationships(s) and integration of the outputs from these processes into overall management of the project.

Contract administration also has a financial management component. Payment terms should be defined within the contract and must involve a specific linkage between seller progress made and seller compensation paid.

 

TT:

Contract CC system

Buyer conducted perf review

Inspection and audits

Performance reporting

Payment System – Usually handled by accounts payable system of the buyer. It includes reviews & approvals by PM team.

Claims Administration – Contested Charges (claims, Disputes or appeals) are those where buyer and seller cannot agree. If both parties do not resolve a claim it is handled according to the resolution procedures established in the contract. Contract clauses can involve arbitration or litigation and can be invoked prior or after contract closure.

Records Management System – Set of procedures and automation tools that are consolidated as part of PMIS to manage contract documentation and records.

IT

 

OP:

Organization Process Assets (After Contract Administration) –

1.       Correspondence – In addition to documentation, it is a record of all the written and oral communication.

2.       Payment Schedules and Requests

3.       Seller Performance evaluation documentation

PMP updates – Procurement Management Plan and Contract Management Plan.

 

Contract Closure

Procurement Audit – Review of procurement processes from Plan purchases to Contract administration. Aims to identify successes and failures.

Records Management System

Contract closeout is similar to administrative closure in that it involves both product verification (Was all work completed correctly and satisfactorily?)

Administrative closeout (updating of records to reflect final results and archiving of such information for future use).

Administrative Closure (Internal)—generating, gathering, and disseminating information, to formalize a phase or project completion.

Contract Closeout—completion and settlement of the contract, including resolution of any open items. (External )

 

Difference between Contract Closeout and Admin Closure

1. Contract Closure comes first 2. AC is done at end of each phase or project, CC is done only once at the end of Contract 3.AC – Lessons learned   CC – Procurement audit    4. AC – Less Formal           CC – More Formal.

 

a contract, an agreement, a subcontract, a purchase order, or a memorandum of understanding.

Buyer(Give Order )----PO------------à Seller

Seller ----Invoice------à Buyer (Pay order)

 

Contract Types and Risk

1. Fixed Price 2. Cost-Reimbursable 3.Time & Material

CR

Buyer has risk, as total cost are unknownYou are buying “what to do” from seller.

Cost plus fee or Cost Plus Percentage of Cost (CPPC)

No valid for federal contracts. Sellers are not motivated to control cost, used when buyer can tell what is needed then what to do. Seller write SOW. Bad for buyer

   Cost Plus Fixed Fee (CPFF)

Used for research and development contracts (which generally have low level of detail in the scope); fixed fee can change if there is a change to the contract (usually through change orders). The risk rests with the buyer. This is the most common cost reimbursable contract.

   Cost Plus Incentive Fee CPIF)

Buyer and seller share in savings based on predetermined %s; long performance periods and substantial development and test requirements (incentive to the seller to perform on or ahead of time) Cost plus agreed fee plus a bonus for beating the objective

Cost plus Award fee

Similar to CPIF but award amount is amount is determined in advance and apportioned out depending on performance.

 

·         In Cost plus contract, the only firm figure is the fee

T & M

Used for small amount contract. Good if the buyer wants to be in full control and/or the scope is unclear/not detailed or work has to start quickly. Profit factor into the hourly rate. Fixed rate but variable total cost. They are open ended.

Fixed price or Firm Fixed Price (FFP)

Buyer defines reasonably detailed specifications (e.g. SOW). Shift risk to seller. Good when deliverable is not a core competency. Fixed Price (FP) is the most common type of contract in the world. Seller is at risk.

   Fixed Price Plus Incentive Fee (FPIF)

Incentives for fixed price contract. The inventive is same as CPIF. High-value projects involving long performance periods

Fixed Price Award Fee

“bonus” to the seller based on performance (e.g. 100K + 10K for every designated incremental quality level reached. Award fee is decided in advance.

Fixed Price Economic Price Adjustment (FPEPA)

Allow Price increase if the contract is for multiple years

Purchase Order

A form of contract that is normally unilateral and used for simple commodity purchases. It is simplest type of fixed price contract and is usually unilateral(Signed by one party instead of bilateral)

Contract type Vs Risk

FP – FPIF – FPAF – FPEPA – T&M – CPIF – CPAF – CPFF - CPPC

Fixed Price – T&M - Cost Reimbursable

Buyer’s risk from low to high

Seller’s risk from high to low

Cost Reimbursable

Advantages

Disadvantages

Simpler contract SOW

Required auditing sellers invoices

Usually required less work to write the scope than FP

Requires more work for buyer to manage

Generally lower cost than PL because the seller does not have to add as much for risk.

Seller has only a moderate incentive to control costs

 

Total price is unknown

T&M

Advantages

Disadvantages

Quick to create

Profit is in every hour billed

Contract duration is brief

Seller has no inventive to control costs

Good choice when you are hiring to augment your staff

Appropriate only for small projects

 

Requires the most day to day oversight from the buyer

Fixed Price

Advantages

Disadvantages

Less work for buyer to manage

Seller may under price the wok and try to make up profits on change orders

Seller has a strong incentive to control cost

Seller may not complete some of the SOW if they begin to loose money

Companies have experience with this type

More work for buyer to write the CSOW

Buyer know the total price at the project start

Can be more expensive than CR is the CSOW is incomplete. The seller will add to the price for their increased risk.

 

Elements of a Contract

 

   Offer

Assent to certain terms by both parties

   Acceptance

Agreement, written or spoken

   Consideration

Something of value

   Legal Capacity

Able to contract

   Legal Purpose

No violation of public policy

 

Stages of Contract Negotiation

 

   Protocol

Introductions

   Probing

Identify concerns, strengths, weaknesses

   Scratch bargaining

Actual bargaining

   Closure

Positions summed up

   Agreement

Documenting

 

Specification - precise description of a physical item, procedure, or service.  The SOW supplements the specification in describing what must be done to complete the project.

Privity - legal relationship that exists between any contracting parties (e.g. if company “A” hires “B” and “B” subcontract to “C”, “C” is not legally bound by anything “A” can say; the privity is with “B”)

Waiver - a party can relinquish rights that it otherwise has under the contract. Forebearance can mature into waiver.

Force Majeure – Act of God, Floods, Fire etc  

Indemnification – Liability, who is liable

Retainage – withholding of funds under contract. Amount of money usually 5% to 10% withheld form each payment. This money is paid when work is complete.

Warranty - assurance of the level of quality to be provided

A contract ends by:

 

   Successful performance

 

   Mutual agreement

Last two are Termination

   Breach of contract

 

Terms and Conditions – the project manager must uphold the Terms and Conditions of the contract, even if it meets the needs of the project, it has to also meet the requirement of the contract.

Liquidated damages -

Contract Control System vs. Project Control System – they both include procedures. The contract control system requires more documentation and more signoff.

Work Authorization Systems – can be used to coordinate/control what time and sequence work is done. It helps with integrating tasks into a whole.

Performance Scope of Work – describes the performance – not the functionality-- required by the customer

Independent Estimate – most concern with costs, comparing cost estimates with in-house estimates or with outside assistance (part of Source Selection)

Procurement Audit – structured review that flush out issues, and set-up lessons learned. Helps ensure problems are resolved for future projects. Identify successes and failures that warrant transfer to other procurements.

Beneficial Efficiency – when the work is being used for the intended purpose and has been certified

Terminating contract for Convenience – if a project is terminated before it is complete, the level of extent of completion should be established and documented.

Material Breach – Breach so large that it may not be possible to complete the work.

Sole Source (not Single Source) – Only one seller, it might be a company that owns a patent.

Contracting

 

Centralized

Decentralized

+ More economical

+ Project Manager has more control

+ Easier to Control

+ Contracting personnel are more familiar with project

+ Higher degree of specialization (expertise)

+ More flexible and adaptable to project needs

+ Orders can be consolidated

- Duplication of contracting efforts

- May become a bottleneck

- Higher costs

- Less attention to special needs

- No standard policies

 

Negotiating Tactics

 

Deadline

Strategic Delay

Surprise

Reasoning Together

Limited Authority

Withdrawal

Missing Man

Unreasonable

Fair and Reasonable

Suggesting Arbitration

 

Fait Accompli (A done deal)



Notes: I am not the writter of this post, please thanks the anonymous writter

PMP - Chapter 11 – RISK Management







































































Knowledge Areas




Major Processes




Primary Inputs




 




Tools & Techniques




Primary Outputs




RISK




It's risky to have an IQ in DC.




 




 




 




 




Risk Management Planning




Deciding how to approach and plan risk management activities.




1. Enterprise Environmental Factors



2. Organizational Process Assets



3. Project Scope Statement



4. Project Management Plan




 




1. Planning meetings and analysis




1. Risk management plan




Risk Identification




Determining which risks are likely to affect the project & documenting their
characteristics




1. Enterprise Environmental Factors



2. Organizational Process Assets



3.Risk management plan



4. Project Scope Statement



5. Project Management Plan



 




 




1.Documentation reviews



2. Info-gathering techniques



3. Checklist analysis



4. Assumptions analysis



5. Diagramming techniques




1.Risk Register




Qualitative Risk Analysis




Assessing the impact and likelihood of identified risks.




1. Organizational Process Assets



2. Risk Register



3. Project Scope Statement



4. Project Management Plan



 




 




1. Risk probability & impact assessment



2. Probability and impact matrix



3. Risk data quality assessment



4. Risk Categorization



5. Risk urgency assessment



 




1.Risk Register (Updates)




Quantitative Risk Analysis




A process that analyzes numerically the probability of each risk and its
consequence on project objectives




 




1. Organizational Process Assets



2. Project Scope Statement



3. Risk Management Plan



4. Risk Register



5. Project Management Plan



* Project Schedule Management Plan



* Project Cost Management Plan




1. Data Gathering and representation techniques



(Interviewing, probability distribution and EJ)



2. Quantitative Risk analysis & modeling techniques. (Sensitivity, EMV, Decision
Tree)




1. Risk Register (Updates)




Risk Response Planning




Developing options & determining actions to enhance opportunities to reduce
threats to project objectives




 




1. Risk Management Plan



2. Risk Register




1. Strategies for negative risk or threats



2. Strategies for positive risk or opportunities



3. Strategies for both threats and opportunities



4. Contingency response strategy




1. Risk Register (Updates)



2. Project Management Plan (Updates)



3. Risk related contractual agreements




Risk Monitoring & Control




Tracking identified risk, monitoring residual risks, and identifying new risk,
ensuring the execution of risk plans and evaluating the effectiveness in
reducing risk.




 




1. Risk Management Plan



2. Risk Register



3. Approved Change Requests



4. Work Performance Information



5. Performance Reports




1. Risk reassessment



2. Risk audits



3. Variance and trend analysis



4. Technical performance measurement



5. Reserve analysis



6. Status Meetings




1. Risk Register (Updates)



2. Requested Changes



3. Recommended Corrective actions



4. Recommended Preventive actions



5. Organizational process asset (Update)



6. Project Management Plan (Updates)



 





 



Project risk - Is an uncertain event or
condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or a negative effect on a project
objective.



A risk has a cause and, if it occurs, a consequence. Risk identification is an
iterative process. (Just like core process). Objective is to decrease the
probability and impact of negative events and vice versa.



Risk Management Planning: deciding on how
to approach, plan and execute risk mgmt activities for a project.



Risk Identification: determining which
risk can effect the project and documenting their characteristics.



Qualitative Risk Analysis style="font-weight:bold"> Prioritizing risks for subsequent further
analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence
and impact.



Quantitative Risk Analysis – Numerically
analyzing the effect on overall project objectives of identified risks.



Risk Response Planning: developing options
and actions to enhance opps and reduce threats to project objectives.



Risk Monitoring and Control: tracking
identified risk, monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, executing
risk response plans and evaluating their effectiveness though the project life
cycle.



 



RMP: it is input to cost and time
estimating, schedule development and cost budgeting.



I/P: EE factors (attitude towards risk and
tolerance, which can be found in policy statement or revealed in actions), OP
assets, Project scope statement, PMP



TT: Planning meetings and analysis: Risk
cost element and schedule activities will be developed for inclusion in the
project budget and schedule respectively. Responsibilities will be assigned;
templates will be tailored for use later.



Output:



Risk Management Plan – Describes how Risk
Management will be structured and performed, it includes




  1. Methodology (Approach, tools and data sources)


  2. Roles and responsibilities


  3. Budgeting (assign Resources and
    estimated Cost for inclusion in cost baseline)


  4. Timing (When and how often;
    includes risk activities in project schedule)


  5. Risk Categories style="font-weight:normal;font-family:"Trebuchet MS";font-size:11.0pt">
    (RBS, Good practice is to review risk categories during RMP prior to Risk
    Identification Process)


  6. Definition of Risk Probability and Impact style="font-weight:normal;font-family:"Trebuchet MS";font-size:11.0pt">
    (Definition of probability and impact)



    1. Probability and Impact Matrix
      (Look up table, with impact categorized
      as Low, Moderate or High)






  1. Revised Stakeholders tolerances


  2. Reporting Formats style="font-weight:normal;font-family:"Trebuchet MS";font-size:11.0pt">
    (Describes Risk Register Contents and format)


  3. Tracking (Auditing and
    Documentation for current project, future needs and LL)



 



 



Risk Types – 1. Business (Gain or Loss) 2.
Pure Risk (Only Risk of Loss)



 



Attitude about Risk – Should be made
explicit, Communication about risk should be honest and open. Risk response
reflects organizations perceived balance between risk taking and risk avoidance.
Some one who does not want to take risks is said to be Risk Averse.



Tolerance and Threshold – Tolerance are
areas of risk that are acceptable or unacceptable. A threshold is the amount of
risk that is acceptable. You use this information to help assign levels of risk
on each work package.



 



Risk Identification



IP: EE Factors, OP assets, project scope
statement (assumptions), risk management plan(R&R, RBS, risk provisions),
project management plan



Tools:
Documentation reviews, info gathering techniques
(Brainstorming, Delphi
tech, interviewing, RCA, SWOT); Check List
Analysis
- based on Historical information of previous similar projects.
The lowest level of RBS is used as Risk Checklist; Assumption analysis style="font-style:italic">; Diagramming tech: C&E, system/process
flow chart, influence diagram,



OP: Risk Register



 



Delphi tech: is a way to reach a consensus
of experts, questionnaire is sent to solicit ideas and responses are summarized
and re-circulated to the experts. Consensus is reached in few rounds. It helps
to reduce bias in the data and keeps any one perform fro having undue influence.



 



Qualitative Risk Analysis: focuses on
prioritizing risks using probability and impact of the risk as well as time
frame and risk tolerance. It also leads to over all risks of the project. It is
also known as Risk assessment.



IP: OP assets, project scope statement,
RMP, Risk Register,



TT: Risk probability and impact
assessment, Probability and impact matrix, Risk data quality assessment, Risk
Categorization (based on common causes, using RBS/WBS/Phases), Risk urgency
assessment.



OP: risk register (updates)



 



Quantitative Risk Analysis: it assigns
numerical ranking to the prioritized risks primarily uses Monte Carlo Simulation
and Decision Tree Analysis. It should be redone after RRP and RMC to asses risk
reduction.



IP: OP Assets, Scope Statement, RMP, Risk
Register, PMP (SMP, CMP).



TT:




  1. Expert Judgment


  2. Data Gathering and Representation Techniques



    • Interviewing,


    • Probability
      Distribution

      Beta Distribution and
      Triangular Distribution
      can use
      ordinal or cardinal values. Both uses 3 point estimates and are continuous
      distribution. Decision tree uses representation of discrete distribution.
      Uniform distribution can be used when no obvious value in early concept stage of
      design.






  1. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques


    • Sensitivity
      Analysis – Determine which risks have most potential impact,


      Tornado
      style="font-family:"Trebuchet MS";font-size:11.0pt"> Diagram
      (compares relative importance of variables that have a high degree of
      uncertainty to those more stable)


    • Expected
      Monetary Value – Opportunity expressed as Positive, Risk expressed as negative
      example Decision tree. Modeling and Simulation is recommended for Cost &
      Schedule Risk analysis because they are more powerful and less subject to misuse
      than EMV analysis.


    • Decision
      tree analysis – Shows available choices and their possibilities with more
      complex process than EMV. It assumes mutual exclusivity.


    • Modeling and
      Simulation – Done using

      Monte Carlo Technique style="font-family:"Trebuchet MS";font-size:11.0pt">. In
      simulation project model is calculated many time (iterated), with the input
      values randomized from a probability distribution function and a probability
      distribution is made.

      Cost Risk Analysis style="font-family:"Trebuchet MS";font-size:11.0pt"> use CBS or
      WBS.


      Schedule Risk analysis
      use PDM.





OP: Risk Register (updates)



 



Risk Response planning: it creates owner
for each agreed to and funded risk. Risks responses are developed in risk
planning and risk response planning stage



IP: RMP, Risk Register



TT: Strategy for negative risk (avoid,
transfer, mitigate), Strategy for positive risk ( exploit, share, enhance), for
both acceptance, contingent response strategy,



OP: Risk Register (Updates), PMP
(updates), Risk related contractual agreement.



Risk Management Control



Process of identifying, analyzing and planning for newly arising risks, keeping
track of identified risks and those on the watch list, reanalyzing existing
risks, monitoring trigger condition for contingency plans, monitoring residual
risks and reviewing the execution of the risk responses and their effectiveness.



IP: RMP, Risk Register, App CRs, work
performance Info



TT: Risk reassessment, Risk Audits,
Variance and trend analysis, Technical performance measurement, reserve
Analysis, Status Meetings (RM is an agenda)




  1. Risk Audits:
    examine and document the effectiveness of risk responses in dealing with
    identified risks and their root causes, well as the effectiveness of the risk
    management process.


  2. Variance and trend analysis:

    reviewed using performance data, EV anal and other methods used. Measure overall
    project performance deviation from baseline indicating the potential impact of
    threats or opps.


  3. Technical performance measurement:

    compares technical accomplishments during project ececution to the PMP’s
    schedule of technical achievement. Reveals degree of success in achieving
    project’s scope.


  4. Reserve Analysis: style="font-weight:normal;font-family:"Trebuchet MS";font-size:11.0pt">
    it monitors contingency reserves remaining to the amount of risk remaining at
    any time in the project in order to determine if the remaining reserve is
    adequate.



OP: Risk register (updates), CRs,
recommended CAs and Pas, OP asset (update), PMP (update)



 



Risk Register – (O/P of Risk
Identification)


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  1. List of Identified Risks
    (including root causes and assumptions)


  2. List of
    Potential Responses


  3. Root causes
    of Risks


  4. Updated Risk
    Categories (RBS which is developed in RMP is enhanced or amended)



Updates after Qualitative Risk Analysis


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  1. Relative Ranking or Priority
    list of Project Risks


  2. Risks
    grouped by categories


  3. List of Risk
    requiring Response in the near term


  4. Watch list
    of low priority risks


  5. Trends in
    Relative Risk analysis results



Updates after Quantitative Risk Analysis


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  1. Probabilistic Analysis of the
    project: this output typically expressed as a cumulative distribution is used
    with stakeholder risk tolerances to permit quantification of the cost and time
    contingency reserves


  2. Probability
    of Achieving Cost and Time Objective


  3. Prioritized
    List of Quantified Risks


  4. Trends in
    Quantitative Risk Analysis Results



Updates after Risk Response Planning


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  1. Identified Risks, their
    descriptions, areas of the project and how they affect project objectives


  2. Risk owners
    and their responsibilities


  3. Agreed upon
    response strategies


  4. Symptoms and
    warning signs of risks occurrence


  5. Budget and
    Schedule activities required to implement the chosen responses


  6. Contingency
    reserves of Time and Cost and Triggers.


  7. Fallback
    plan


  8. Residual and
    Secondary Risks



 



Risk Response Planning
Techniques



Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats



Avoidance (elimination/abatement)
Eliminate the threat posed by an adverse risk. Can be done by changing the
Project Plan or protecting (isolating) project objectives from its impact. Or
relaxing time, cost, scope and quality or cut scope



Mitigation (reduction) Reduce the Expected
Monetary Value by reducing probability or impact. Float can be use to mitigate
potential risks. Reduction in the probability or impact of an adverse risk.
Adoption less complex processes, conducting more tests, stable supplier.



Transfer Deflect or share (eg. Insurance,
warranties). Shifts the negative impact of a threat to a third party it doesn’t
eliminate it, insurance, performance bonds, warranties, guarantees etc,



Strategy for positive Risks or opps



Exploit: assigning better quality resource
to reduce time to complete



Share: allocating ownership to third party
who has expertise.



Enhance: by facilitating or strengthening
the cause of the opportunity, targeting its trigger.



Strategy for both



Acceptance Accept or retain consequences.
2 types: Active Acceptance (develop a
contingency reserve) or Passive
Acceptance (no action).



 



Residual Risks – Risks that are expected
to remain after planned responses have been taken, as well as those have been
deliberately accepted.



Secondary Risks – Risks that arise as a
direct outcome of implementing a risk response.



Recommended Corrective Actions – For Risk
monitor and Control include Contingency plans
and workaround plans
.



Workaround Unplanned response to negative
risk events (requires to be impacted by the risk first).Work around plans are
not initially planned but are required to deal with emerging risks that were
previously unidentified or accepted.



Contingency Plan Planned action steps to
be taken if an identified residual risk occurs. (e.g. developing alternative
activity sequences). It is for the risks which are accepted.



Contingency Reserve: calculated based on
the quantitative analysis of the project and organization’ risk thresholds.



Fall Back Plan: It is plan executed when
contingency plan is not effective.



 



Risk database style="font-style:italic"> - A repository that provides for
collection, maintenance, and analysis of data gathered and used in the risk
management processes.



 
































































































Types of Risk




 




 




Business




 




Normal risks that offer gain and loss




Pure / Insurable




 




Only loss: property damage, indirect consequential loss, legal liability,
personnel. For risk we can outsource, we have contract. For pure risks, we
obtain insurance.




Statistical Independence




 




Occurrence of one event is not related to occurrence of the other




Data Precision Ranking




 




Purpose is to test the value of data (input to Qualitative Analysis)




Path Convergence




 




Tendency of parallel paths of equal duration to delay the completion of the
milestone where they meet. It is characterized by schedule activity with more
than one predecessor activity




Uncertainty




 




An uncommon state of nature, characterized by the absence of any information
related to a desired outcome.




Expected Monetary Value




 




= Probability * Monetary Impact (used in Decision Tree Analysis)




Risk Event




 




A discrete occurrence that may affect the project for better or worse. After a
risk event, the project manager’s role is to reassess the risk ranking. The risk
owner is responsible to take action when an identified risk occurs.




Risk Trigger




 




A symptom of risk; indirect manifestation of actual risk event; output of risk
identification; example is poor morale




Risk Portfolio




 




Risk data assembled for the management of the project




Utility Theory




 




Technique that characterizes an individual’s willingness to take risk




Sensitivity Analysis



 



Risk Auditor




 




Places a value on the impact to the project plan by adjusting a single project
variable; simplest form of analysis



Role is to investigate the effectiveness of the risk owner (which can cause
potential conflict with risk owner)




Numbers to Know




 




 




1 sigma



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68.3%




 




2 sigma



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95.5%




 




3 sigma



style="margin:0in;font-family:"Trebuchet MS";font-size:11.0pt;color:black">
99.7%




 




6 sigma




99.99%




 





The range of an estimate with the smallest range is the least risky.



 



Documentation



Risk Management Plan – would most likely
be developed during scope planning phase of the scope management process.



Decision Tree Analysis - 1. Takes into
account future events in trying to make decision today



2. It calculates EMV in more complex situations 3. Involves mutual exclusivity



Fall back Plan – Specific actions that
will be taken if the contingency plan is not effective.